November 25, 2017

Gideon Rachman, FT: Things could go bad again

Gideon Rachman from Financial Times writes that falling into a severe global economic crisis similar to the Great Depreseion from the ’30 is a very real possibility, but history, progress of civilization and the lower predisposition to political radicalization in the more developed countries give less likely chances to start a new world war. The European situation predicts only the worst, concern shared by the Polish Minister of external affairs, Radoslaw Sikorski and the French president Nicolas Sarkozy. European politicians have many times called to the war perspective like to something to be scared of, in order to promote the European project, but these threats can hardly be taken into account in Western Europe by a generation to whom peace and prosperity represents a normal stasis and everything turned for the best in the last decades. Even more, globalization in the last 30 years brought hopes of peace, prosperity and a reasonable standard of living beyond privileged Western Reserve, and the world appears like a safer and homogenous place – middle classes rise slowly in Asia and Eastern Europe to embrace capitalism’s comfort and principles. Global peace, which during the Cold War seemed to be dependent on the threat of the nuclear weapons, is now guaranteed by trade and consumerism. But the events that followed the crash of the Lehman Brothers showed that things have not necessarily turned to better. The risk of a great economic crisis in Europe is severe. Chain insolvencies among states in the euro zone and the collapse of the monetary union have become in the last months real prospects, which threaten to trigger a modern variant of the Great Depression – the collapse of the Banks, panic among population, strong recessions and mass unemployment. The European Union as a whole is the greatest economy of the world. The fall of this economy into chaos would inevitably have global ramifications, would block the commercial fluxes and shake the global financial system.

Source: Financial Times (read more)

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